Hydrogen could be a key part of a diversified policy approach on energy

By James Bradshaw

As demonstrated by the tax changes introduced during this week’s Budget, the Irish Government’s oft-mentioned target of having one million electric vehicles (EVs) on the road by 2030 forms a key part of Ireland’s response to climate change.

However, with CSO figures showing that EVs constitute a tiny minority of new car registrations in the last year, politicians will be hard-pressed to achieve this, in spite of the strong consensus which exists around reducing carbon emissions and moving away from the use of petrol and diesel.

And while the car industry is changing to meet the gradually increasing demand for EVs and hybrid vehicles, electrification is not the only solution which industry groups are pursuing.

In 2019, The Irish Times reported that Hydrogen Mobility Ireland — a group including household names such as Bord Gáis Energy, Toyota, CIÉ Group and Hyundai — had plans to establish up to 80 hydrogen filling stations in Ireland over the next decade.

Up until now, the possibilities provided by the development of hydrogen fuel have been the focus of surprisingly little attention here in Ireland.

At the heart of the technology is the fuel cell, which works like a battery in providing electricity and heat when liquid hydrogen fuel is pumped into it.

Hydrogen-fuelled vehicles use fuel tanks which are filled in the same way as traditional cars, allowing for greater convenience compared to long charging times required by EVs, an advantage which is often supplemented by a greater driving range.

Constraints around battery size are currently limiting the development of electric options in the area of heavy goods vehicles, and the greater power available could have major implications for the development of hydrogen. Better still, hydrogen-fuelled vehicles produce no emissions.

Hydrogen for transport purposes is just one use of a product which opens up an abundance of possibilities across all sectors (though one problem holding back the development of hydrogen is that low-carbon hydrogen is not yet cost-competitive compared to that which is derived from renewable sources).

Though Irish policy-makers have devoted little time to the subject, the same is not true of their counterparts at EU level.

The European Commission’s recently published strategy document — ‘A hydrogen strategy for a climate-neutral Europe’ — suggests that “the share of hydrogen in Europe’s energy mix is projected to grow from the current less than 2% to 13–14% by 2050.”

They also quote estimates from analysts in the field who believe “that clean hydrogen could meet 24% of energy world demand by 2050, with annual sales in the range of €630 billion,” and suggest that the technology could be particularly advantageous when it comes to areas where electrification is not always a viable option: buses and trains being two examples given in the Commission’s document.

These are not idle plans for what could occur in the coming decades; governments around the world are already investing in hydrogen.

East Asian nations are particularly enthusiastic.

China, Japan and South Korea have set out targets to have millions of hydrogen-powered vehicles on the roads. Massive investment is taking place in R&D as well as in developing a network of hydrogen fuelling stations which will allow drivers to keep cars fuelled. One sign of this shift lies in the area of public transportation, where hydrogen-fuelled buses are playing a bigger role in meeting China’s transportation needs.

None of this is to say that hydrogen is a silver bullet when it comes to tackling climate change, nor is it to deny that there are challenges to overcome.

Safety concerns certainly exist; hydrogen is highly flammable and a small number of hydrogen tank explosions have already occurred.

The capital costs involved in developing a sufficient number of fuelling stations is also a stumbling block.

Most people would never consider using a hydrogen vehicle if they are not sure they will be able to access fuelling stations wherever they need them, but no industry player will be willing to develop a comprehensive hydrogen fuelling infrastructure if they do not already have a substantial customer base.

It is hard to predict how much of a role hydrogen will play in meeting the world’s transportation needs a decade from now.

That is the nature of technological development, though. The road forward is a winding one, and a dramatic and unpredictable change can materialise out of nowhere.

In the 19th century, few could have predicted that humans’ heating and lighting needs could ever have been met without recourse to whale oil.

Happily for whales and humans alike, a better technology was on the horizon in the form of fossil fuels. They enabled us to make great social and economic progress, but less happily, this came at an environmental cost which has become ever clearer in recent decades.

The next step in our onward march will require something better still: products which will allow us to continue to make economic progress in a way which does not imperil the future of our planet.

To achieve this, a diversified policy approach will be key, and hydrogen is likely to play a crucial role in this.